Pages

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Tuesday ... still an off day for Sabahans.

Tenaga : All the energy charged ... up it goes. Yes, buying at RM6 was right? How about buying at RM7? To me, it is time to sell ... that is what I told WX who bought at RM6.20+. I cant remember but I do remember I sms-ed her when I bought Tenaga at RM6.20. It went down, below RM6, actually. Today at RM7? Due to the rate hike? Sell Tenaga stock as we need more money to cover our higher expenses now - brace ourselves ... hyper-inflation on the way!! BTW, RSI of Tenaga was at 62+ yesterday. So, chasing her will be for short term.

UEMLand-ce : Doing good ...

UEM-ce : Cleared at 0.175 for short trades. Bought on Friday at 0.160-0.165.

KLCI up 12 points. BULL. Thanks to Tenaga.

UEMLand : Going to 2.90 now. Grabbed back UEM-ce at 0.175.

CIMB : Moving today too ...

KLCI up 18 points now!! BULL.

Turnover is RM3.1b today. Alert.

MHB : UP and UP ...

MAS : Rebounds to 1.40 level now.

5pm : Time for another class.

UEM-ce : Oh boy ... dropping back. 0.17 and 0.165 done too.

off

TEH

Monday, May 30, 2011

Sudirman


Merisik Khabar



Terasing



Anak Gembala




Nilai Cintamu



Kau Akan Kembali



Balik Kampung



Pelangi Petang



Kumeniti awan yang kelabu
Kutempuhi lorong yang berliku
Mencari sinar yang menerangi
Kegelapanku

Kupercaya pasti suatu masa
Sang suria kan menyinar jua
Membawa harapan yang menggunung
Bersamanya...

Engkau tiba bagaikan pelangi
Tak bercahya namun kau berseri
Tapi cukup menghiburkan
Hati ini

Seharian waktu bersamamu
Tak terasa saat yang berlalu
Bagai pelangi petang kau kan pasti
Pergi jua...

Hujan



I watched an hour biography of Sudirman in "History" channel last night. Such a talent, such a waste. I still like most of his songs. Yes, I do like many Malay songs and proud of it. I am a Malaysian. :)


TEH
Today is off day in Sabah.

Happy holiday to those in Sabah and Sarawak.

11.40 am : KLCI in red.

MAS : At 1.37 now. I am watching as to see how low this 'sistem' can go. Is 'bad' news a good news for investors to buy? This is an GLC, so theoritically the local funds will support it. We shall see ...

MEGB : At 1.86. This is another very interesting stock to stalk - checking on many broker reports and what analysts saying about her ... and our gov's funds which 'supporting' this parasite. I am talking about those wasted GOV's loans given to those not-so deserving ones. And worse part of it, they NEVER feel that they need to re-pay their loans!! Those grads thought they deserved the loans ... or is it scholarship?

Masteel : It is at 1.23 now, watching at 1.18 strong support now.

Naim : At 2.35 ... going lower each day. Still a good stock to buy?

YTLPower : At 1.17, going below 2.20 now. Why? I do like her, can buy?

3.45 pm : KLCI in red, off 3.5 points.

Hevea : Continue to dive lower, at 0.72 now.

MAS : Touched the low of 1.34, at 1.38 now. I will want to catch a knife soon.

KNM : At 2.05, still down ... at RM2 = 50cents? What was the ratio? 4 : 1, right?


AirAsia takes clear lead over MAS

By Goh Thean Eu

Published: 2011/05/30

AirAsia Bhd's market capitalisation is now almost 80 per cent bigger than the national carrier Malaysian Airline System Bhd.

It was only less than a year ago when AirAsia's market cap reached parity with that of MAS, as both had a market cap of about RM7.5 billion.

In October 2010, the younger AirAsia was trading at the RM2.50 level, while the "senior" MAS was trading at the RM2.20 level.

AirAsia has attracted more than seven times foreign institutional funds into the company. Based on the recent annual report, foreign institutional funds own more than 22 per cent of the low-cost carrier. As for MAS, foreign institutional funds hold just less than 3 per cent.

Fortunes of both companies on the stock exchange and on the business field have varied. Since its listing, the budget carrier has only suffered two quarters of net losses, partly due to fuel price volatility. In contrast, MAS, its more experienced rival, has suffered nine quarters of net losses during the same period.

In the most recent quarterly results, AirAsia posted a net profit of RM171 million, while MAS suffered a net loss of RM242 million.

"In hindsight, this is probably the best result one could have hoped for in a volatile oil environment, without fuel surcharges (they were only implemented on May 3) and in a seasonally weak Q1," said Nomura Research, commenting on AirAsia's recent financial performance in its report recently.

As at last Friday, AirAsia's market cap exceeded RM8.4 billion and is trading at its all-time high level of RM3.11 on May 11 2011 and at a price-earnings of 8.26 times. In contrast, MAS is now trading at a decade low of RM1.45, with a total market cap of less than RM5 billion.

Analysts generally are starting to express pessimism on the airline industry due to the high fuel prices. Fuel expenses constitute 48 per cent of AirAsia's operating expenses and 38 per cent of MAS.

"Nevertheless, we still prefer AirAsia as its low-cost structure puts it in good position to weather the high oil price," said an analyst at a local research house.

Moving forward, AirAsia's outlook is expected to remain brighter than MAS.

"Assuming all other variables remain constant, a fuel cost sensitivity analysis on AirAsia and MAS revealed that AirAsia will still be profitable unless jet fuel exceed US$190 (RM574) per barrel, while MAS will sink into the red if jet fuel remains above the US$115 (RM347) per barrel," said ECM Libra Avenue in a research report in March when crude oil prices were rallying.

Year-to-date, the budget airline's shares have appreciated by 20 over per cent, while MAS shares have slumped by more than 30 per cent.

Not only that AirAsia has created value for the minority shareholders, but the company's major shareholders also had the opportunity to cash out. During the first year AirAsia was listed, Datuk Seri Tony Fernandes had an indirect stake of 44.76 per cent. Today, he has less than 27 per cent indirect stake.

It is also not the first time Malaysia has witnessed a newcomer taking on an incumbent, and emerging as the winner.

As another analyst put it: "This is not the first time we saw a 'newcomer' surpassing the initial market leader. Another good example is Proton versus Perodua. Consumers are now more conscious on price and quality".

Time to go now.

Off

TEH

Sunday, May 29, 2011

Game of the year : Barca 3 - MU 1.

TEH : I was hoping MU could win but I think Barca is definitely one of the best footballing club in the world now.

KLCI closed 7.75 points higher on Friday. DOW closed slightly higher too.



MAS : A free fall now. RSI 12.41. Hmm ... new low everyday. With reports like " Bleak outlook for carriers" and will be taken out from the top-30 KLCI linked. With price of oil hovering at USD100 + incompetence management(ada sistem?), could MAS digging a grave now?

TEH

Friday, May 27, 2011

Taken from : Noktahitam's blog. I am glad I found this new blog-site. Yes, I am migrating from finance-market blog.




KLCI poised to open higher ... Genting's profits up.

UEMLand : Getting some interests back ... going for UEM-ce.

UEM-ce done at 0.165. It needs to break 0.17.

MAS : At 1.51-1.52 now. Will it go below RM1.50? High oil prices + bad management. No more Jala, no more safety-net.

9.45 am : KLCI up.

KNM : Diving ... touched 2.19. At 2.23 now.

11.30 am : KLCI up 7 points. Wow.

YTLPower : TOched 2.18 this morning, going below 2.20 now.

MEGB : Below RM2 now, at 1.97. Interesting to watch how it fair ... say, 2 years from now?

Jaks : At 0.64, an abandoned speculative counter.

Scomi : Below 0.30 now ... another abandoned counter, waiting for some speculative news for the syndicate to 'goreng' her.

2.05 pm : Taking a short coffee-break. KLCI up 7 points, thanks to Tenaga and Genting


QL-wa : Being a discipline 'turtle', he sold half of his stake above 1.11. And planned to buy back at 1.00. Today, I saw it touched 1.00, wonder if EK bought her back?

RM1 stock


EPMB


Fitters


GTronic


HiapTeck


Pelikan


TWSCorp


YeeLee


YTL-e


TEH

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Morning ... will be busy again today with classes.

Naim : Downtrend, RSI 27. Looking at 2.42 level now. Ouch. Still a good stock to hold?

YTLLand : At 1.66. RSI 33.Last weekend, we had a lunch at Sentul area and I saw "Caper". An excellent modern designed high-rise building. Wonder how much they are selling for a 'small' unit? A million or two?

9.10 am : KLCI up 6 points, thanks to many reporting positive and good earnings.

IJM : Three observations - volume reducing, BB narrowing and histogram moving above zero level. So, it is a buy-n-hold at the moment. I am going to grab some of her as I do not have time to trade. So, I am buying with technical view and also the laggard-syndrome.

The "M"s

MahSing-cb : Moving again after MahSing reporting good news. It was at 0.31-0.32 level. At 0.35 now.

MClean : At 0.365, wa at 0.13 now.

MEGB : At RM2 now. Could it go below RM2 again? The target price(and IPO price) is above RM4. Wow. This PTPTN loans from gov may not last 'forever' as most of them wont pay back the loans( more than RM2b?).

MAS : Reported losses(again). Will be kicked out of KLCI-component and going into NEW low. Below RM1.60 now.

Media : At 2.80, was at 2.60 before Sarawak election when I started to place her on my stalk list. It jumped above RM2.90 and currently resting at RM2.80 level.

Masteel : The MRT news fizzle-out, no one seems to be interested. At 1.30 level now. Watching.



TEH

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Today could be a very busy day. So, no time to write.

Yes, I will only write when I am free, when I am in writing-mood and when I have something to write about.



GenM : Look for support at 3.44 now.

Tenaga : Above 6.50 now. Buying on her is back.

Efficien : At 0.22 now. Must be some good news out?

2.50 pm : KLCI flat, Tenaga in red(due to profit-taking?) but TM continues to help to support KLCI.


MEGB : Still in many's radar ... at 2.02 support level now. RSI should be below 40 today.

Hevea : DIVED to 0.80 today, losing 20%. The timber-stock rally was over quite some time ago, why only now Hevea diving? Must be bad reports, news etc again.

TEH

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

DOW down 130 points. Can KLCI hold on or dive?

Reading : There is one thing which, if practised and developed conduces to letting go, giving up, stilling, calming, higher knowledge and awakening. And one is that one thing? It is recollection of peace.

Today could be another looong day for me as I will be 'busy'. I have purposefully slowing down my pace but need to up a notch if I need to get most of the things plans today. I have been a 'lazy' recently, facing a 'depression' syndrome? Move it.

No post today as I need to wake up from my slump to complete my tasks!

2.40 pm : A class cancelled. I am 'free' for an hour before my next class.

KLCI is flat ... MAS at 1.61, Genting below RM11. TM and Tenaga pulling up KLCI. Tenaga above RM6.30 now. YTLPower touched 2.20 today - looking for the bottom to BUY.

The 'E's

E&O : Touched 1.50 today, up trending.

EAH : Touched 0.40 today, wait for 0.38 level.

Efficien : Went from the base at 0.16, seeing 0.20 today in high volume.

Evergreen : In deep red, back to 1.15 level now after a short technical rebound. Bad earnings wont do the stock prices well.

EPMB : In red too ... touched 1.01. Overbought after a huge run-up. Still a strong uptrend.

Equine : At 0.485. RSI below 50.

3.15 pm : UEMLand moving, huge buying in. UP ..

MAS : At 1.58 now ... bad news is that it will be taken out of KLCI(it should have been long time go, perhaps AirAsia to buy over?). New low everyday ... watch as it is still Malaysia Airline System tho the systems are faulty.

MClean : Seeing some buying today ... hmm ... I am still punting on its wa. At 0.11-0.12 level now. Buying?


Stress, depression and anxiety disorders are psychological challenges faced by many people. Most psychological problems can be averted if you know how to properly manage your mind and not letting it get out of order. Managing your mind is like tending to a garden. If you do not tend to it in a disciplined manner, unwanted weeds and undergrowth will overwhelm it. On the other hand, if you manage your garden with tender loving care and plant it with good seeds, then you will reap a good harvest.

In other words, if you consistently bombard your mind with worrisome thoughts, anxiety and stress will set in until it gets out of control. Seeding your mind with good and resourceful thoughts will ward off a breakdown and will keep your mind in tip top levels.

Do you know that the fear of anxiety attacks by itself is the main trigger to cause anxiety attacks? Just by learning how to deal with anxiety has helped thousands of sufferers stop these problems in it’s tracks.

This should be the first step, among others, and listed below are the top 21 stress & anxiety management techniques that you can do on your own. All of them are proven to work well and will lessen your worries and should be part of your overall self-management strategy.

Remember, manage your mind well using these psychological and physiological tips and you will live a positive and fulfilling life, free from stress and anxiety attacks.

1. Change your diet. Following a balanced diet is not only good for your weight and general health, but is a proven stress & anxiety management technique. You should never starve yourself and always eat breakfast – skipping breakfast results in low sugar levels, which in turn might bring up anxiety-like symptoms. Eating food rich in calcium, phosphorus and magnesium helps reducing stress and so does avoiding refined sugar.

2. Reduce the intake of caffeine – limit your caffeinated beverages to one per day or switch to decaf. The large amounts of caffeine will induce anxiety symptoms and might lead to sleeping troubles as well.

3. Vitamin B will help you in your battle with anxiety disorders and stress. Most doctors will advise you to increase the intake of foods, rich on B vitamin, or take it as a supplement. Click here for resources on Vitamin B and its calming effects.

4. Exercising is an excellent stress & anxiety management technique – it eases the symptoms of anxiety and stress. During exercise endorphin is released and that helps in boosting your mood. Medical practitioners recommend at least 45 minutes daily exercise from up to five days per week and this can be aerobic, walking, or cardio.

5. Massages help in decreasing stress and anxiety levels. If you start feeling anxious at work or don’t have the time to visit a professional masseur you can give a quick and discrete neck and hands self-massage right there in your office.

6. Analyze and face your problems and fears. If you are suffering from phobia you should never try to face your fears “head-on”, but gradually, with the help of a professional, learn to accept situations that you find terrifying. Take proactive approach to your problems, do not leave your chores and tasks for the last minute, this only increases your stress levels.

7. Think positive. Replace negative thoughts with positive ones. You might have heard of this already, but this is in fact a simple, yet powerful stress & anxiety management technique. If you start having negative thoughts and excessive worries you can force yourself to think about something pleasant and enjoyable. Immediately you will start feeling better and calmer.
Suppress negative thoughts – do not underestimate the power of your own mind. You are in control and you can decide to push your negative thoughts away and replace them with happy ones. A simple technique is to imagine that you are in a better place – close your eyes and “see” yourself sitting on the beach, listening to the splash of the ocean waves – this will calm you down and help you reduce your stress levels.

8. Take action. If you have been diagnosed with anxiety disorder, take action – this will give you a sense of control and in turn reduce your stress and anxiety. Start seeing a mental health professional, join an anxiety support group, join the gym, start exercising, take any action and you are already a winner.

9. Manage your “worry time”. Many people worry about events that are far ahead in the future. Why worry now if you can worry later? If you can take practical steps to solve a problem, by all means take them, but there is no need to worry excessively as this will only increase your anxiety.

10. Write down your worries and fears. Once you put it all down on paper, you might find out that you worry about events that you have no control over (they will either happen or they won’t) are small and insignificant matters. In that case simply stop worrying about them – keep your strength for the big challenges in your life.

11. Don’t worry what other people think or say about you. This is very helpful for people who suffer from social anxiety disorders. You don’t need other people’s approval in order to lead fulfilling and exciting life, and the sooner you realize this simple truth, the less stressed out you will feel.

12. Sex is one of the most wonderful and pleasant stress & anxiety management techniques. Large amount of endorphin, which is a feel-good hormone, is released during sex and this explains why all people are happy after having sex. Studies have proven that sex and orgasms boost mood and reduce stress levels. Even though most of us lead busy lives, you can always find time for sex.

13. Practice deep breathing – many health professionals will be able to show you breathing exercises, which you should keep practicing. Once you sense some physical or mental signs of anxiety or even panic attack, start breathing deeply – this is a simple technique where you deliberately slow down your breathing and use your diaphragm. This will slow your heartbeat, relax your muscles and reduce anxiety.

14. Smile! Smiling realeases our body’s natural drugs: Serotonin and Endorphins. These hormones are natural pain killers and are also labeled as natural “feel-good” drugs. It will wash away all the tensions in your body, relaxes your muscles and take away pain. It will also instantly change the negative state that you are in into a positive one and this will in turn put you into a good mood. Smiling is also contagious and will boost your immune system.

15. Use the power of affirmations – using positive affirmations throughout the day will help you fight anxiety – if you suspect that you might be having another panic attack, you can keep repeating to yourself “I can handle this,” and “I will calm down.” Even though this might seem odd at first, it will help you feel much better. Your mind will move you towards things that you are focusing on. If you keep on saying “I will calm down”, etc, it will take immediate command of calming you down and this has instant effect.

16. Don’t be a victim – fight back! If you and your family are in good health, if you live in a peaceful country and there’s no major weather disaster coming your way, then you don’t have much to worry about. You must be a fighter and tackle your everyday tasks with ease and simply see them as minor challenges, not as something that you should excessively worry about.

17. Don’t overload yourself. If you work 12-14 hours every day and take no time off, your stress levels will inevitably rise. Know your limitations, take practical steps to reduce your workload, take time to relax and you will better manage your anxiety and stress.

18. Aromatherapy is a great way to relax – many oils like lavender, geranium, marjoram and others can help you relax and in fact have been used to help people with sleeping disorders. They are believed to relieve anxiety and stress symptoms as well.

19. Acupressure is an ancient Chinese technique that is believed to reduce stress, tension, and anxiety. Studies have shown that it has positive effect, similar or better than the traditional full-body massage.

20. Focus on doing something that you like. If you have been putting off an interest, now is the time to take up the hobby. It may be keeping a pet, painting or anything that will occupy your mind. In so doing, your mind will now have new thoughts and that leaves it with no room for negative ones. Just by flushing out the unresourceful thoughts which create anxieties and replacing it with a new focus will work wonders.

21. Listen, read or watch motivational materials. Simply search Youtube.com for videos tagged with keywords “motivational” or “inspirational” and spend some time going through highly rated videos. This will almost instantly change your perspective and downplay your worries. You can also read inspirational books or talk to people who can inspire you.

Do you like the list above? Remember, the first step to conquering panic anxiety attacks is to conquer the fear of having one!

Coming Home




"Coming Home"(feat. Skylar Grey)

I'm coming home
I'm coming home
Tell the World I'm coming home
Let the rain wash away all the pain of yesterday
I know my kingdom awaits and they've forgiven my mistakes
I'm coming home, I'm coming home
Tell the World that I'm coming

[Diddy]
I'm back where I belong, yeah I never felt so strong (yeah)
(I'm back baby)
I feel like there's nothing that I can't try
And if you with me put your hands high
(put your hands high)
If you ever lost a light before, this one's for you
And you, the dreams are for you

I hear "The Tears of a Clown"
I hate that song
I always feel like they talking to me when it comes on (come on)
Another day another Dawn
Another Keisha, nice to meet ya, get the math I'm gone
What am I 'posed to do when the club lights come on
Its easy to be Puff, its harder to be Sean
What if the twins ask why I ain't marry their mom (why, damn!)
How do I respond?
What if my son stares with a face like my own
And says he wants to be like me when he's grown
Shit, but I ain't finished growing
Another night the inevitible prolongs
Another day another Dawn
Just tell Keisha and Taresha I'll be better in the morn'
Another lie that I carry on
I need to get back to the place I belong

[Dirty Money - Chorus]
I'm coming home
I'm coming home
Tell the World I'm coming home
Let the rain wash away all the pain of yesterday
I know my kingdom awaits and they've forgiven my mistakes
I'm coming home, I'm coming home
Tell the World that I'm coming... home

[Diddy]
"A house is Not a Home", I hate this song
Is a house really a home when your loved ones are gone
And niggas got the nerve to blame you for it
And you know you woulda took the bullet if you saw it
But you felt it and still feel it
And money can't make up for it or conceal it
But you deal with it and you keep ballin'
Pour out some liquor, play ball and we keep ballin'
Baby we've been living in sin 'cause we've been really in love
But we've been living as friends
So you've been a guest in your own home
It's time to make your house your home
Pick up your phone, come on

[Dirty Money - Chorus]
I'm coming home
I'm coming home
Tell the World I'm coming home
Let the rain wash away all the pain of yesterday
I know my kingdom awaits and they've forgiven my mistakes
I'm coming home, I'm coming home
Tell the World that I'm coming... home

[Diddy]
"Ain't No Stopping Us Now", I love that song
Whenever it comes on it makes me feel strong
I thought I told y'all that we won't stop
We back cruising through Harlem, Viso blocks
It's what made me, saved me, drove me crazy
Drove me away than embraced me
Forgave me for all of my shortcomings
Welcome to my homecoming
Yeah it's been a long time coming
Lot of fights, lot of scars, lot of bottles
Lot of cars, lot of ups, lot of downs
Made it back, lost my dog (I miss you BIG)
And here I stand, a better man! (a better man)
Thank you Lord (Thank you Lord)

[Dirty Money - Chorus]
I'm coming home
I'm coming home
Tell the World I'm coming home
Let the rain wash away all the pain of yesterday
I know my kingdom awaits and they've forgiven my mistakes
I'm coming home, I'm coming home
Tell the World that I'm coming... home


TEH

p/s : Still collecting my pieces to reply to SnowBall's post, which touched about EDUCATION in MALAYSIA. Will love to write in length when I hv the time and mood for it!

Monday, May 23, 2011



Light Reading : I got an e-mail and it is about 'light reading'. Yes, comics is encouraged. That is how a person like me who DIS-like reading cultivated my reading habits. I read comics ... such as Calvin and Hobbes, Dilbert etc. So, for those who find reading is boring or difficult to get yourself into a reading habit, try 'light reading'.


I could not write during weekends as I was busy spending time with family. I could not write too if I could not get my thoughts in line. I am not reading much to write, but been reading about 'peacefulness' and 'happiness' these days, in general. I do think of slowing down many of the things I am involved in, including writing this blog. I am also on the verge of 'giving-up' of finding a decent cheap place to stay(at least for this year).

So, I shall spend my quiet time reading about non-business-related news. Not politics, not those main-pages national news ... but to read about how to simplify my living, making it simple. It is not simple to simplify our fast-pacing living these days.

BStead : Reaching RM6 again.

HuaYang : Reaching 1.70 soon.

10 am : KLCI down by 7 points now.

MClean : Going to a low 0.365, wa at 0.125. This one could turn out to be turkey of the year for new IPO.

YTLLand : At 1.69, touched 1.68. Watching ...

11.35 am : KLCI in red.

Neno : MClean at 0.36. Sorry to disappoint you, Neno. I did not buy her. I am tracking her for learning purposes. Glad to see you are still here, reading my kosong-blog.

SA : Ghee ... Thanks. But, I m not giving up. I m just 'consolidating' on many things I m doing or try to do. So, I m dropping many while enhancing on other values which closer to my heart. Emm ... like, having lunch with my bros/mom on Sundays. :)

MClean : Still monitoring as it is interesting case of more sellers. At 0.35 level now. I like what Sal.D written about her in his latest post. Seriously, SC or Bursa really need to check on these cases. Many investors/punters alike lose lots of money in her.


Hap Seng extends losses, hits lowest since December

Written by Joseph Chin of theedgemalaysia.com

Monday, 23 May 2011 13:21

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BHD [] fell to the lowest since early December 2010 as investor continued to sell down the stock on disappointments over the share placement exercise.

The weaker overall market sentiment also weighed down the stock. The 43.80 million new shares were listed on Monday also.

At 12.30pm, Hap Seng was down 16 sen to RM5.16 with 1.35 million shares done. This was the lowest since Dec 6 when it was at RM5.16.

The FBM KLCI fell 6.79 points or 0.45% to 1,534.24. Turnover was 399.40 million shares valued at RM482.97 million. There were 156 gainers, 502 losers and 264 stocks unchanged.

On May 12, the company announced it had fixed the issue price for the placement shares at RM5.25, or 9.9% below the five-day volume-weighted average market price up to May 11 of RM5.83.

The company had then said the book-building exercise for the proposed placement of 43.80 million shares saw interest exceeded the amount offered. There was interest for about 62 million shares.

After the announcement of the fixing of the placement price, the shares have been sliding on investors’ disappointment over the pricing.

HapSeng : Oversold.

Learning Corner : Lagging Indicator

1. A measurable economic factor that changes after the economy has already begun to follow a particular pattern or trend.

2. A technical indicator that trails the price action of an underlying asset, and is used by traders to generate transaction signals or to confirm the strength of a given trend. Since these indicators lag the price of the asset, a significant move will generally occur before the indicator is able to provide a signal.

Investopedia explains Lagging Indicator

1. Lagging indicators confirm long-term trends, but they do not predict them. Some examples are unemployment, corporate profits and labor cost per unit of output. Interest rates are another good lagging indicator; rates change after severe market changes.

2. An example of a lagging indicator is a moving average crossover, because it occurs after a certain price move has already happened. Technical traders use a short-term average crossing above a long-term average as confirmation when placing buy orders since it suggests an increase in momentum. The drawback of using this method is that a significant move may have already occurred, resulting in the trader entering a position too late.

off.

TEH

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Song Watch : Creed

My Sacrifice



One Last Breath



TEH
Saturday ... normally I will have classes from 8am till 3pm. As Maths paper was over, I am FREE. I have to adjust myself with the free time. I have registered to attend CNX's trader club meeting but I think I will give today a skip and only to go next week.

Today, I will go to Shah Alam again to view some housing area there.

I will want to write about Education which being mentioned by SnowBall. Yes, I have plenty of things to rant about our education system.

Till tonight ...

TEH

Friday, May 20, 2011

Brain Drain, what brain drain?

There are not even brains to begin with...

Then, there is the question on brain drain. Although it is an important problem, I would like to think that most of the people that are leaving in the past few years may not necessary be considered a brain. Is someone with an ACCA qualification decided to come to Singapore to work as an accounts executive should be considered a brain? Is someone with a rich dad that can afford to send them to tier-3/4 Aussie universities and decided to stay put should be considered a brain? I think the more serious question is not about the brains are leaving, because, I think all the good ones has already left a long long time ago. Those that are leaving now, may not necessarily be a talent. The more serious question is that we are not even producing brains anymore. As a product of our public education system from Primary to Pre-Uni level, I think our public education system is not working. It is a serious problem, but, we are not even debating it.

Take a look at the Malaysian contingent at a Singapore university, those that came here, should have a minimum GPA of 3.8 and above in the STPM, that is, they, at the very minimum, score just one or two A minuses, with the rest being As. Amongst the contingent is our country representatives for things like International Olympiads i..e. the Olympics for the geeks. So, in terms of scholastic ability, these bunch of people should be at least in the top 15%, probably a bit higher, in our country. But, how does these bunch of students perform vis-a-vis other students from say China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines? Most of the Malaysians just got thrashed. Yes, education should not be just about grades, it should be on other things as well like leadership and stuff. But, the Malaysians there seems to be not filling up the leadership position in clubs and societies either.

Our students are unable to compete with others when the curve is a normal curve, not a skewed one. Our students could not compete when As are set at 85-90 instead of 65 that is common in our country. Our students are unable to think and reason well because we are not thought to do so. Our students are not thought to work hard because, despite the 6 hour/day schooling we have, probably only 50% of those time are filled with real learning, the rest of the time, we are told to "buat kerja sendiri". When kids in other countries are working on a 8-12 hours/day while our kids are working on a 3 hours/day schedule, over the long run, the effects is damaging. Our students are less hungry, less curious and less creative than that of our closest regional competitors.

Now, we are planning to cancel the examinations too. What a great idea by those geniuses running our education ministry, the same geniuses that think that teaching Science and Mathematics in mother tongue is a good idea. Taking away the examinations would take away the only motivation that these students are on a 3 hours/day learning rather than a 0 hour/day learning. I find the idea that students would be more creative if we do away with examinations rather stupid. The Koreans and the Japs have some crazy examinations, but, did it made them any less creative? It is the way you test the students, the way you make them think that eventually determine how creative these students will become. If, by just doing away with exams, students could amazingly becoming more creative- a trait much needed for the new economy, every country would have done it. There is no magic bullet in education, but, the people running the show seems to think there is one.

Ten years ago, if you tell people that your job is to study why people click on a certain link, why people do certain things online, why people stay longer on a certain site, people would have thought that you are a nut job. But, ten years later, your job has just became one of the most sought-after ones in the silicon valley. These is how fast our world is developing, jobs that are unheard of ten years ago became one of the hottest jobs in silicon valley. Did our education system prepare our students for these sort of jobs? I think, the answer is no. When other countries in the world are constantly reviewing their education policy to face the increasingly complex world, it saddens me to think that, there is not even a debate on our own policy. No politicians, from both sides, seems to think that this is one hell of a serious issue. This is certainly more important than even the issues about quota because, no matter what quota we have, if we produce stupid Malays, Chinese and Indians, the countries will suffer.

Taken from : SnowBall's blog

TEH : One of the best writing I read in a blog.

TEH
Song Watch : Evanescence


My Immortal (Album Origin 2000)



I'm so tired of being here
Suppressed by all my childish fears
And if you have to leave
I wish that you would just leave
'Cause your presence still lingers here
And it won't leave me alone

These wounds won't seem to heal
This pain is just too real
There's just too much that time cannot erase

[Chorus:]
When you cried I'd wipe away all of your tears
When you'd scream I'd fight away all of your fears
And I held your hand through all of these years
But you still have
All of me

You used to captivate me
By your resonating light
Now I'm bound by the life you left behind
Your face it haunts
My once pleasant dreams
Your voice it chased away
All the sanity in me

These wounds won't seem to heal
This pain is just too real
There's just too much that time cannot erase

[Chorus]

I've tried so hard to tell myself that you're gone
But though you're still with me
I've been alone all along

[Chorus]


Hello ( Album : Fallen 2003)




"Hello"

Playground school bell rings again
Rain clouds come to play again
Has no one told you she's not breathing?
Hello, I am your mind giving you someone to talk to
Hello

If I smile and don't believe
Soon I know I'll wake from this dream
Don't try to fix me, I'm not broken
Hello I am the lie living for you so you can hide
Don't cry

Suddenly I know I'm not sleeping
Hello, I'm still here
All that's left of yesterday

Everybody's fool (Album : Anywhere but home 2004)



"Everybody's Fool"

perfect by nature
icons of self-indulgence
just what we all need
more lies about a world that

never was and never will be
have you no shame? Don't you see me?
you know you've got everybody fooled

look here she comes now
bow down and stare in wonder
oh how we love you
no flaws when you're pretending
but now i know she

never was and never will be
you don't know how you've betrayed me
and somehow you've got everybody fooled

without the mask where will you hide?
can't find yourself lost in your lie

i know the truth now
i know who you are
and i don't love you anymore

it never was and never will be
you don't know how you've betrayed me
and somehow you've got everybody fooled

it never was and never will be
you're not real and you can't save me
somehow now you're everybody's fool



I like Amy's voice. I like most of their songs very much.

TEH
Transmile : Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd has dismissed Transmile’s appeal and the beleaguered air cargo transport company will be delisted on Tuesday, May 24.

Bursa Securities said on Thursday, May 19 that it decided to dismiss the appeal after considering the facts and circumstances.

Note : Investors in them could not afford to smile anymore.

Malton :Malton Bhd’s earnings surged 620% to RM26.28 million from RM3.64 million a year ago, underpinned by higher billings from the property development division.

Its revenue increased by 79.4% to RM116.38 million from RM64.89 million while pre-tax profit increased by 512.7% to RM38.6 million from RM6.3 million. Earnings per share were 7.55 sen compared with 1.05 sen.

Malton : Technically, reaching resistance at 0.81, RSI 70 level now. So, it is about time to think of SELLing.

Note : Buy property stocks, not property.

Bike accident

When I was on my way to office, I witnessed a motorbike accident near SS15 roundabout. The Indian couple on the bike was over-weight for a small kap-cai. It is difficult for them to turn and was knocked from behind by a MyVi(a Chinese lady, I think). The MyVi went off!! Few of us in bike stopped and help the couple. The lady was lying on the road ... and she is heavy. Four of us(3 other Indian guys) trying to carry her as she is crying in pain. My heart felt for her. Sorry to see someone in pain.

A policeman was about 10 meters away, walked casually(he is overweight too, anyway) to the scene and started scolding the rider(about 50+ old man). I was like ... "excuse me, encik. Can you try to help first?". Seeing things settling, I took off to office. I hope she will be 'OK'. She might injured her spine as she is too overweight and the fall could not be good.

I was thinking of RISKs in riding a kap-cai. Hmm ... besides riding the RISKY stock-markets votality, I am also riding a RISKY kap-cai. Perhaps I am too old for both?

9.05 am : KLCI flat.

Evergreen : Rebounded to 1.27 now. Hmm ... learning from my 'in-decision' to grab her at 1.16.

RHB : UP and UP again ... interests by MayBank and CIMB?

9.55 am : Yes, I am enjoying listening to songs. Then, checking on some stocks ...

Kulim-wc : Continue to rebound ... nice.

KFC : Overbought and resting.

MClean : Started to move ... punters are in?(again?). I am going for its wa. Done at 0.135.

10.45 am : YTLLand at 1.73. Hmm ... wait.

TopGlove : At 5.38, selling her at 5.50 as planned. This is my TopGlove play. Buy every 50cents down, selling every 50 cents up. Holding period ... forever? Hmm ...

TEH

Thursday, May 19, 2011

8TV : Showdown






Two two crews above considered as the best so far.



First two to go out last two weeks ago in TOP12 - EGS and Soulution Crew. Last night, Deja Vu Breakerz eliminated. They are from KK, Sabah.

8TV
: http://apps.8tv.com.my/showdown/info-top12.asp

I have been following this one for past weeks, every Wednesday 9.30 to 11.0 pm. I might want to watch it 'live' next week or so at I-city, Shah Alam.

TEH
10.30 am : KLCI up 2+ points.

Kulim-wc : Moving today. Of coz, check out QSR and KFC. They are in a family!!

YTLLand : At 1.73, dropping again ... good. Wait.

KFC : Someone asked about her when was at 3.70(consolidated for some time at that level). Today, KFC above RM4. I still have no comment about her tho I do grabbed KFC-wb at 1.40 and been holding for quite some time now.

QL-wa : At 1.12 now. EK told me he bought at 0.93 and top-up at RM1. So, I asked him to sell at 1.10 level as RSI is high, new high, high premium ... ripe for selling after all, collecting at 0.90 level and top-up at RM1(as planned) was right. It is NOT right to ask a person to buy/sell as it might shoot to RM1.50 next week. Who knows? But, he is novice, my turtle and asking my opinion(s). So, in my flawed opinion, it is a sell. Warrants are meant to be traded, not buy and hold. It is expiry at 2013, btw.

MClean : Going below 0.40 today. Going for a punt?

IJacobs : Drops another 8% now, at 0.40 level. IPO yesterday at 0.27, jumped to RM1(wah-lau eh) and OUCH to those chased up. It is cut-loss with pain. Look at MClean ... it is below IPO now.

Tenaga : Been at RM6 level, up again to 6.25, pulling KLCI with her. Watch.

MAS : Back to 1.70 level. It is at the low level now. Time to buy into our Airline System?

3.30 pm : KLCI at 1546, a high now. KLK up today. CPO-counters registering good profits?

Malton : Continues to move higher now. Checking at 0.80 level. RSI at high level.

Masteel : At 1.31. Wait and be patient. I am telling myself. Haha.

4.15 pm : KLCI up 3 points.

EPMB : flying again ... new high, very high RSI. No chasing. At 1.08 now

WCT : Slowly and steadily up. At 3.10 now. Do look at WCT-wc, bounced from 0.70, at 0.78 level today.

Evergreen : Grabbed at 1.16 when it dived last week, released her off. At 1.24 now. Ouch!!

Property Stocks - Penny stocks to goreng

DBhd
Equine
KBunai
Keladi
LBS
MKLand
Tagb
Talam
Tanco

TEH

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

10.20 am : KLCI up 4 points plus.

IJacobs : Surged above RM1, at 0.53 now. What a crazy trading scam!! Syndicates luring many punters in, and many chasing her only to see it go lower!! Do look at MClean or MPay or FLBhd. Many more new 'ACE' counters listed being used for quick bucks. Do not chase.

GPacket : It is green again, in news again and again.

KFC : At 3.90 now. Good. I do still have her at 1.40, one of the buy-n-hold stock. Somehow, it is fingers licking good?

MAS : Going below 1.70? Wait at 1.65 then.

Malaysian Airline System Bhd fell to its lowest level in more than nine years in Kuala Lumpur trading after index provider MSCI Inc said the national carrier’s stock will be removed from the MSCI Malaysia Index.

The stock slid 2.9 per cent to RM1.69 at 9:09 a.m. set for its lowest close since Dec. 5, 2001.

The change will take place as of the close on May 31, MSCI said in a statement on its website. -- Bloomberg


QL : Reaching RM3.60. This is one slow and steady good stock. QL-wa above RM1 now. I have sold her off(sigh) but my turtle, EK, who bought at 0.93 still holding to her. Many of the times, buy a good uptrending stock and hold may be a good strategy!!

WCT-wc : Accumulating at 0.70, 0.75, 0.80. Check it that will do well.

Masteel : Accumulating at 1.40, 1.30, 1.20. Check if it works.

EPMB : At 0.99 ... moving back above RM1?

10.45 am : Counter showing a nice number 123, 456. Nice.

2.35 pm : KLCI still in green. QL-wa at 1.10 now. I hv asked EK to consider selling.

Off .. busy till 9.30 pm today.

TEH

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

China Property





TEH

Monday, May 16, 2011

Stock Watch

HapSeng : RSI 20. Oversold and downtrending. Placement made at 5.25, at 5.30 now.

HSPlant : RSI 20. Oversold. Watching support 2.53 level.

Latexx : Gapped down, RSI 23. At support 2.38 now, dived 9% today after the 'bad' news. Not touching as this coould be a very sharp knife. Watching 2.27 level.

MAS : RSI 34.3, new low of 1.74. Watching 1.66 level.

Supermax : RSI 23, oversold. Watching 3.79 level.

TEH
Happy Wesak Day





Tomorrow is a public holiday in Malaysia. I do have to work from 8 am to 4 pm.

May all of us live in harmony, buddhists or non-buddhists, muslims or non-muslims, christians or non-christians.

TEH
Monday ... time to do some work.

I could not get myself to write yesterday as Sunday is 'family' time. By the time I am home at night, I am tired and preparing to watch Liverpool's game(they lost 0-2). I did read some articles from The Edge. One of it regarding HapSeng's placement. Another interesting one is HKSE - cheaper valuation, a bargain. Time to reconsider HK's babe again.

MU : Congrats to MU fans ... Sir Alex is the best manager around.

FA vs TA : A person by the nick "Dexter" placed a comment about how good FA(from his sifu Sam - promoting job, actually) is and be-littling Alex Lu or whoever using TA. These have been going on-and-on in blogsphere(since I know what market is and since I started this blog). I think it is not constructive to argue which is better or working well. It depends on one's appetite and TIME FRAME. Many easily missed out TIME FRAME. I could buy a stock and hold 'forever' and did not lose money, right? I could also be losing money doing short trades, right? So, no point speaking about FA vs TA, right?

FA : Fundamental analysis ... in what aspects do you look into? PER is widely used(even that, do you use forwarded, current or historical --- perhaps average?). Some mentioned NTA, P/B ... dividend investors prefer high dividend yield, some prefer growth companies. Which is which? So, even fundamentalists will 'argue' which is the best ratio/statistics to be used.

TA : Technical analysis ... in what aspects do look into? Moving average, MACD or RSI. Indicators are being combined etc etc. Which is which? If one add in more indicators or methods, it could be very confusing!! Again, many technical analyst may not agree to each other. One thing for sure, no 100% sure system around. A high % of above 60% will give us the edge when we trade using certain indicators.

FA + TA : These days, many use the combinations of both. And I do think this is much more logical tho again, our parameters used may vary.

So, please count me out about the arguement of FA or TA. I am siding neither.

WCT : Supported well at RM3, sideway. It is lagging behind many construction counters, and valuation wise, below IJM and Gamuda. One of the reason could be due to the 'news' of its exposure in the middle-east. It is expected to follow the trend of the market, and more upside than downside seen. So, no need technical ... buy WCT now, wait. But, if market reverses and WCT going below its support, it is sell(technically). Or if some BAD news about its projects in middle-east or such, sell(fundamentally). One can argue till the cow comes home(LOL) whether to use FA or TA on her ... but if my car-plate is WCT, I will have no doubt to buy her and hold forever? Haha.

MSC : Technically a sell at 5.12. Overbought. My 'turtle' WK was sharing with me that he bought at RM4, received his dividend ... and should he be selling her now?

I am not aware of what my 7 'turtles' buying or selling. I do believe sharing with them FUNDAMENTAL analysis will help them in long run as they are new to markets. I think I should look into more of FA than TA too since I am very busy.

9.45 am : KLCI up 3 points.

Malton : Breaching 0.73 resistance today.

Maxis : At 5.60 now ... a good counter for dividend play.

SPSetia : Start to move too ... looking into property counters.

10.10 am : Supermax is down due to 'low' profits. It is below RM4 now. CIMB cuts Topglove earnings estimate. USD in downtrend, in long term.

MClean : Something is not so clean about her ... at 0.44 now. IPO 0.52, shot up to 0.70 in an hour before being pushed lower. Now, it is slowly drifting down, before 'someone' decide to push it up again, to trap some ikan-bilis traders(like me) and dump it again. We do have many ACE counters listing now. What happens to MPay? Is it pays to buy MPay at IPO price?







Equine : The above is a monthly chart of Equine. Note that it dived in Mac 2008 after BN lost Penang. At 0.50 level, it is like a base for her. So, I shall check it if could go beyond 0.60? Queueing at 0.50.

Fundamental : Err ... what is that? 2009 to 2010, at least the losses were smaller now(EPS -3.16 to -1.12). If in 2011, due to property boom it could register a decent profit to show turn-around, investors might be interested with her again.

Media : Flying off today. I hv Media-ca at 0.235 only to sell it off before Sarawak election. Today, Media-ca at 0.290.

11 am : I will be busy after lunch. KLCI still up 1+ points.

Bowling : I went for my game last Thu after missing it for nearly two months(due to classes). I enjoyed my game well and played very well.

Scores : 188, 191, 236, 235, 215, 181. That was one of my best score for this year!

12.10 am : KLCI flat, slightly in red. Genting losing 20cents.

WCT-wc : At 0.75 today, rebounded from 0.70 level. WCT at 3.03 ... it will take some time(anytime) for it to move above current base-level of RM3. Breaking RM3.20, we will see greater interests. In investors point of view, we should be looking at laggard, good company with lower valuation(coparing to peers) and with many shying away(low volume due to risk of middle-east or whatever pictures others painting). Yes, I do like WCT at current level. Technically, it is potentially forming a BB-squeeze which a breakout from the squeeze could be strong, propelling it to Rm3.20 level which I am watching.



Equine : Done at 0.50.



Supermax : RSI below 30, look at 3.75 level again.



New Blog : I will be creating my Maths-related blog tmr. Finally, after I have procrastinate for one year now!! Time to write about Maths, my passion. I hope my Maths blog will HELP those who wish to improve their Maths. Yeah ... I could claim I am good in Maths but not in trading.

Latexx : Top loser of the day due to the aborted plan. Do read.

HapSeng : At 5.30 now. Watch for bargain-buyers. Fundamentally, it is still a very good counter.

TEH

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Being bullish?


The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) is expected to test the 1,720 points level, by year-end, on the back of sustained economic growth and a possible 12 per cent increase in corporate earnings, said Yeonzon Yeow, Head of Strategy, Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd.

Last year, the FBM KLCI improved 19.3 per cent, supported by a 23 per cent growth in corporate earnings, buoyed by strong domestic news flow, which was well timed and carefully crafted with the government's announcement of the Economic Transformation Programme, New Economic Model, 2011 Budget and Tenth Malaysia Plan.

"Strong fundamentals positively drove the equity market in 2010. A move to keep inflation in check, a strong ringgit and improving foreign direct investment and domestic direct investment would attract foreign investors into the local stock market," Yeow said at the half-day "Invest in Malaysia, Invest in Kuala Lumpur" forum held today.

He anticipated that investors would pick up oil & gas, electrical and electronics, timber, construction, property and automotive stocks, due to its long-term gains, as a result of Japan's earthquake and Middle East unrest.

On the local bourse, the key barometer ended Friday at 1,540.74. -- Bernama

TEH : Shouldnt we be bullish?

BUY : O&G related-counters

TEH
Stock Watch

GPacket : Rebound seen. Testing strong resistance at 0.72.

HapSeng : Have to see her at 5.17 level now. Still dropping.

Ivory : At low level. Stalk.

JCY : At 0.66 level, worth watching for any rebound.

KEuro : Recovering from 1.15 level, at 1.26 now.

MBSB :

MEGB :

Muhibah : At 1.60 now.

QL : At 3.40 now.

QSR : Breaching RM6.

TAGB : Nice chart forming, rebounded from the support.

TWSCorp :

WCT : The laggard to consider. WCT-wb and WCT-wc showing some signs of rebound.

Need to sleep. Will continue if Blogger didnt block me out.

Night.

TEH
DOW down 100 points.

KLCI at 1540 level now.

Note : No post on Friday as Blogger was down. I could not sign in. Also, my Thu post went missing. Never mind.

The two "E"s : Penny Stock no more

ECM : Testing RM1 now, closed at 1.01. RSI at 77. Watching.

EPMB : Closed at 1.02, breached the RM1 barrrier and could stay above RM1. Strong uptrend since OSK upgraded her. RSI at 76, was at 83.

The other "E"s

E&O : Continue its uptrend. Reaching 1.60 now. RSI at 74. Overbought.

EAH : My huge holding here, recovering to 0.43 level now and need to stay above 0.43. RSI above 50. Good.

Efficien : Technically, strong support at 0.155, touched that level ... at 0.175 now.

Equine : At 0.495 now, support at 0.48. resistance 0.57. I hv placed her in my stalk-list as for the Da-Men project in USJ1.

Evergreen : At 1.17, touched 1.13 low and 1.20 high range. Oversold stock.


TEH

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Forgiveness





TEH
Kaamatan Month :Unduk Ngadau Inanam 2011.



Kadazan, the Bumis of Sabah having a harvest festival end of the month. They will have this beauty contest 'Miss Keamatan'. These are some of the contestents of "Miss Inanam" taken by a friend of mine in Sabah. Inanam is just a small pekan(town). Now, I do miss my Kadazan friends.
http://www.sabahtourism.com/sabah-malaysian-borneo/en/event/4161-kota-kinabalu-city-harvest-festival/

DOW dropped 130 points, could KLSE remain bullish today? Is there a follow-thru of yesterday's buying?

SLV : At 34.39, rebounded but dived back, losing 8.3%.



EAH : Rebounds seen at 0.40 level. Indicators showing positive signs.


Masteel : Indicators pointing to a rebound, testing 1.42 level now.



MAS : Touched a low of 1.75 yesterday. Interesting to watch ... stalk.

9.05 am : KLCI in red opening.

Dayang-ca : Hmm ... someone released a new baby here. Dayang? Thought S'wak stock-rally was over?

TEH

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Monkey See Monkey Do

1. Start with a cage containing five apes. In the cage, hang a banana on a string and put stairs under it. Before long, an ape will go to the stairs and start to climb towards the banana.

2. As soon as the ape touches the stairs, spray all the apes with cold water. After a while, another ape makes an attempt with the same result - all the apes are sprayed with cold water.

3. Turn off the cold water. If, later, another ape tries to climb the stairs, the other apes will try to prevent it even though no water sprays them.

4. Now remove one ape from the cage and replace it with a new one. The new ape sees the banana and wants to climb the stairs. To his horror, all of the apes attack him. After another attempt and attack, he knows that if he tries to climb the stairs he will be assaulted.

5. Next, remove another of the original five apes and replace it with a new one. The newcomer goes to the stairs and is attacked. The former newcomer now takes part in the punishment with enthusiasm.

6. Again, replace a third original ape with a new one. The new one makes it to the stairs and is attacked as well. Two of the four apes that beat him have no idea why they were not permitted to climb the stairs or why they are participating in the beating of the newest ape.

7. After replacing the fourth and fifth original apes, all the apes which have been sprayed with cold water have been replaced.

Nevertheless, no ape ever again approaches the stairs. Why not?

BECAUSE, that’s the way it’s always been done around here.

TEH
Satisfaction and Contentment




Compassion



Remove Doubt



Happiness



TEH
DOW up again.

I need to do some paper work today and invigilation. Could only be free after 3 pm.

I will want to write about "contentment", a component of 'happiness'.

In the mean time, have a nice day, trading or not.

Evergreen : Rebound seen ... RSI showing oversold.

2.45 pm : KLCI up 14 points. Bullish.

Still busy ... got classes now. Off.

Bears to sell in May and go away

Written by Citigroup

Tuesday, 10 May 2011 15:54

The latest reason for the bears to sell: it’s May — “Sell in May and go away” doesn’t work well in Asia ex-Japan. May to July have on average been positive return months with only August and September being negative. If you believe that we are in year three of a five-to-six-year Asian bull, then selling in May is the wrong thing to do.

Investors retain sizeable walls of worry and sentiment indicators corroborate this. The time for concern about equity markets is when investors no longer worry and euphoria prevails. We have some ways to go until then.

Not all countries and sectors perform alike — the weakest returns over the summer months have been in Malaysia and the Philippines whilst the best returns have been in India and Indonesia. For sectors, technology has historically done well whilst banks have not enjoyed the summer heat. In terms of earnings revisions, March, May and September have historically been the weakest.

Our own sentiment indicators and conversations with clients reveal the same thing: There isn’t a great deal of optimism around these days, especially when it comes to equity markets. Most investors have a long list of concerns and a list of major events. Aside from the usual — inflation is out of control, China blows up, QE2 ends — we have US debt default, European debt/default risk, and developed markets (DM) vs emerging markets (EM).

Given that many risk events YTD (DM vs EM, inflation fears, rate fears, oil price increases, margin pressure and the Japanese earthquake) have failed to lead markets lower, the next concern aside from the end of QE2, is “sell in May and go away”. More on this in a second.

What we find fascinating about the current market cycle is that if one had sat down in 2009 and said, “I’ve no idea what the recovery will look like, but there will be one so I’ll order the usual please” that investor would have been pretty nearly spot on. For anyone who thought it would be a different recovery and there were clear reasons to think it would be, all his thinking would have added up to little more than underperforming the index.

In the same vein, valuations today of 14.6 times trailing P/E, compared with historical average P/Es of 15.1 times at the end of year two and then 15.5x at the end of year three. Again this is more similar than dissimilar. The same is true when it comes to which investment factors are adding to returns and which are not. In prior cycles, come year three, a combination of price momentum and earnings revisions have proven to be particularly rewarding. Guess what; it is so again. Risk as a factor is underperforming, indicating that not all hands are on deck and committed.

We still have a wall of worry. It is hard — given historical evidence — to make the case that the world is a riskier place, or that it has more moving parts.

We now have second-by-second updates, but this does mean more moving parts. Last month, Asian equities were to be sold due to higher oil prices; today the price of oil is correcting and markets sell off. Cake, eat it and then still have it come to mind.

The wall of worry is there to be climbed and we expect markets to climb it for the remainder of the year. Equities are not expensive on an absolute basis, relative to their history vs bonds or cash and even vs physical assets like real estate in Asia ex-Japan. Don’t forget, Asian earnings have surpassed their prior peaks, equity markets have not, nor have valuations.

Sell in May and go away …maybe better to sit out August and September

Figure 1 looks at monthly returns for Asia ex-Japan over the past 30 years. On average, three months have given investors poor returns. These have been March, August and September. Again, on average, May has not been such a bad month, up 1%, June was a little worse at +0.4% and July came in at +1.3%, the highest returns out of the three-month period. Sell in May and go away really only works due to poor performance in August and September. For all the talk of how bad October is, on average, it has actually been an up month, rising 1.1%.

On average, all months are up months. April, December, October and July are the highest-return months. Sell in May and go away proves to be an abject disaster that costs investors dearly.

The call here is not so much “sell in May and go away”, but whether you believe that we are in year three of a five-year-plus up cycle or in a cycle that is about to roll over. We still see no evidence to suggest that we are in for a short cycle with a recession around the corner. Market performance, valuations, and factor behaviour indicate that this time will be no different than prior cycles, which have been five to six years in duration and end as P/BV approached/reached three times book.

Not all markets or sectors react the same. In May, best avoid Thailand and South Korea as both show negative returns, and go long Indonesia and the Philippines. In June, stay in Indonesia but also pay China a visit, but avoid the Philippines and Malaysia this time. You get the drift. Over the whole summer period, historically the best returns have been in India and Indonesia. Malaysia and the Philippines have a tendency to show the most negative months.

In terms of sectors, the month of May has little to offer investors in technology or other financials. On average, they do poorly. However, those long energy and real estate can rejoice at super normal returns. June is still a good month for energy and is joined by technology (mean reversion from the weak prior month). Those wishing to enjoy a quiet time on the beach over the summer should avoid banks as they do poorly but be long technology, which has on average done well during this time.

Usual to have a correction in year three of the cycle .It is normal for market corrections during the 3rd year of the equity cycle. By year three, interest rates are usually on an uptrend as monetary policy goes from loose to tight.

This is a cause of uncertainty. Corporates begin to increase capex, which near term is both a negative for ROE and a drain on over all liquidity. So as per Figure 2, we have seen many corrections in Asia ex-Japan. These occurred on average at a P/BV multiple of 2.3x and ended on a P/BV multiple of 1.7x. Based on current valuations, this would imply that the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index moves back to its 200-week moving average of 475 vs an index level of 580 today. A slightly aggressive call but it’s happened before.

Last year it took the MXASJ three attempts to breach the 500-index-point level. It broke through on the third try. This year the MXASJ has had one attempt at the 600-level followed by a small sell-off then another retest of 600 followed by a sell-off… Will the third time be lucky again? At the time of writing, both the 50-week and 200-week moving averages are still moving higher, suggesting that it is still premature to make the bear call.

Fund flows are also seasonal by nature .Since 1992 — the 1st date for fund flows — there has been a distinct pattern to foreign flows.

As expected, this has a knock-on effect on the market. 1Q flows tend to be positive, peak in 2Q and decelerate into 3Q before picking up into 4Q. Flows equal demand, so less demand for equities means prices will clearly be softer. Year to date, things have been slightly different: money has flowed out of Asia ex-Japan rather than into Asia ex-Japan. So much for a strong 1Q.

Earnings revisions weakest in March and September .We know that earnings revisions work in terms of helping generate excess returns.

In Asia ex-Japan, the two worst months for earnings revisions have historically been March (just before the results…information leakage?) and then again in September when it becomes obvious that the full-year numbers won’t be met. So it should come as no surprise that September is the weakest month on average, not the period before.

Seasonality in markets also means seasonality in factor returns .In the same way that we have seasonal fruit and vegetables, so do certain investment factors do better than others over time.

Growth investing over 1995-2010 has historically done well in the early part of the year, only to see its efficacy diminish as we move into the later quarters of the year.

Against that we have momentum investment styles. After a rather poor start to the year, it is a case of buy in May until June and return to momentum as an investment style in September. YTD, it would seem that performance has been better than average.

Finally, we have value — the consistent one. Whereas both growth and momentum investment styles have some months of negative average month-on-month returns, this is not the case when it comes to value as an investment style. Value may be less exciting than growth or momentum investing but it surely reduces the blood pressure.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, May 10, 2011.


TEH

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

DOW up 40 points.

MClean : New IPO again ... punting time?

11 am : KLCI up 1 points. Turnover less than RM300m.

Liverpool : Won again. Good.

MCLean : It touched 0.71 in the opening. Now, at 0.59, a punt goes wrong for those jumped into the moving boat. At times, missing the boat could be a relief! Hmm ...

Almost 5pm , KLCI up 4 points.

MClean : At 0.535, so it is a loss-punt for those punted this morning.

OFF

TEH

Monday, May 09, 2011

KLCI opens 2 points up now. Hmm ...

Sharing Corner

Date : 16th Nov 2009

Warrants stalked


1. AnnJoo-wb at 0.65.
2. SPSetia-wb at 0.545
3. Sunway-wc at 0.44.
4. WCT-wb at 0.60
5. WahSeong-wa at 0.385

As at today

1. AnnJoo-wb at 0.67
2. SPSetia-wb at 1.16
3. Sunway-wc at 1.36
4. WCT-wb at 0.66
5. WahSeong-wa at 0.26

Strategy : Place 20% of capitals on each of the warrants above.

SELL if

1. It doubled, take profit.
2. It downs 20%, cut loss.

Results :

1. AnnJoo-wb : It initially went down to 0.60 level before shooting to 0.93 level in weeks. That is 50% profits. It dived down to 0.53 level then. That is still less that 20% cut loss rule. Currently, it is back to same level. So, no profit, no gain from this one.

2. SPSetia-wb : Adjusted price is 0.350, so easily doubled. Profits taken.

3. Sunway-wc : From 0.44, doubled too.

4. WCT-wb : This one went down 20% to reach the cut-loss level. So, loss of 20%. By the way, it flew off to RM1 after that.

5. WahSeong-wa : If bought at 0.385, this one reached the cut-loss of 20% too.

Conclusion : Assuming we have RM10,000 as initial capital, on 16th Nov we bought into ALL of them in a day. RM2,000 each. A profit of 100% = RM2, 000 and a loss of 20% = (RM400). From the above, the profit could be RM4000 - RM 800 = RM3, 200. If that is translated into ROI, it is around 30%. All the trades done in less than a year.

Illustration purposes

The above is just for illustration, taken from my trading journal. I have these idea 2 years ago. It works IF we are in bull-run.

So, how do we apply such a 'stupid' way of trading?

BUY 5 good fundamental-stocks warrants. Place 20% of capital each(more than RM10k suggested - you may reduced it to 4 warrants, 25% each and such). When to buy? When the news everywhere talking about recession, suffering, squeeze, unemployments, bleak future, negative outlook, sell-sell-sell from broker reports, dooms-day revealed(LOL), double-dip phenomenon, no one reading financial blogs(LOL) ... add in those 'negative' views from the crowd.

When to sell? Follow the rules - sell if doubled(or 50% profits) and sell if below 20% cost price(or 10%). Time frame ... one to three years.

The above is just for sharing purposes. The financial market is too huge for me to comprehend. We just want to 'profit' from market, so we need some strategy(proven?). I am just indicating what I am testing out. Sometimes I got 'lucky', it works. At times it is not.

How about now?

If we see the economic situation around, many are bullish. More buy-buy-buy calls by broker houses. More people wanting to enter share-market, many NEWly registered 'investors' with BURSA, more people talking about charts, more investment talks being organised, more IPOs, more projects announced, more new launching, more ... and every short-correction viewed as 'opportunities' to buy.

In short, we are of bullish outlook and sentiment. This is NOT what investors want. So, applying the strategy above will NOT work well. Chances are we need to cut-loss on 3 of 5 of our holdings!!

So ... next time around, I will be prepared to apply such 'stupid' way of buying!!!

Warrants I stalk at the moment : AnnJoo, BRDB, Century, EAH, Fajar, Gamuda, Glomac, Handal, IJM, IJMLand, IJMPlant, KFC, KMLoong, KPJ, Kulim, KYM, Latexx, Masteel, Media, Notion, QL, QSR, Segi, SPSetia, Unisem, WCT, WahSeong, YTLPower.

Doing comprehensive homework on them, then WAIT. Wait for the 'DOOM'. Wait for some bubbles to burst? Or wait for recovery ... such as glove-stocks or IT-stocks? Wait for another rally in the abandoned plantation-stocks?

Yes, I will want to create a sharing corner, rather than learning corner tho I am still in learning process. We need to keep our journal so that we could check if we were right or wrong. For that reason, we could learn from it(hopefully). Most of us do not wish to be so hard-working to do homework(many do not even know what should be done) and keep a dairy/journal could be a huge task. I want to recollect my journals and write it here - for keeping purposes - and to share with many(my readers?) what I have been doing for the past 3 years!! As I came from ground-zero, it is huge for me. I have to learn almost everything from scrap. That was past ... I need to continue to learn while start applying what I have learnt.

One of the purpose of this blog is to collect my trading thoughts, some may sound too naive, stupid or even absurd. But ... arent we all learn to improve? Knowledge is power ... only when applied appropriately.

What do you think of my strategy above? Will it really work? I wonder too ...

4.10 pm : KLCI up 4 points.

BJToto : At 4.14 now.

E&O : At 1.45.

Evergreen : Need to watch her.

HapSeng : At 5.80 level.

Naim : At 2.60 level. Stalk.

Perisai : At 0.73. Watch.

SPSetia-wb : At 1.12 now. Wait.

YTLLand : At 1.76 now. Stalk.

TEH

Sunday, May 08, 2011

Mother's day ... commercialised and many of us 'trapped' into such a hype. Restaurants are packed as many trying to be good sons/daughters ... the more expsensive restaurants one could bring their mom to, the deeper their undiving love to their mom? Hmm ... I am being sarcastic again. I should not. Sorry. Be happy and healthy, mom.

Badminton : Lee Chong Wei beat Bao ChunLai straight set, Koo-Tan is playing now. The young MD pair making some waves. Good.

11.20 pm : Tan-Koo won straight game. Good.

MU leading 1 - 0 in 10 minutes play. Arsenal lost.

11.35 pm : MU scored second goal. Congrats MU, the champ.

Malacca : Buying a property in Malacca now could be a good investment in future, say 10 years time? I shall be 55 by then. It is a good option as we could still find property below RM200k in Malacca. Buy one there, rent out. In 10 years time, if retiring there ... good. Otherwise, sell when the price appreciated sharply. Hmm ...

KLCI-30

Gamuda : RSI 35, looking for 3.45.

GenM : RSI 47. Buy when RSI 30.

Genting : RSI 48, still retracing. At 11.10 now. Looking at 10.80.

IOICorp : RSI 34. Looking at 5.10 level now.

PChem : RSI 38, dropping. Wait for 6.75 level.

Sime : RSI 25. Broken support 8.90, looking at 8.60 now.

YTL : To stalk closely, after the 5 : 1 spilt, more small-investors moving in.

Buy : Buy any of these during correction, if RSI going below 20-30.

Note : I m not looking at MAS, MISC or PPB.


TEH

Saturday, May 07, 2011

Old Cartoons Theme

Batman



Bugs Bunny



Flintstones



Pink Panther



Roadrunner



Scooby Doo



Sinbad



Spiderman



Superman



Tom and Jerry



ThunderCats



TEH
Saturday ... Mother's day weekend.

DOW up 50 points but crude oil below USD99 now.

Blogs : Ideally, I should have two different blogs - one for my thoughts about financial-related(markets, stocks, property, credit cards, savings, expenses, income-tax and such) and another for personal thoughts or doings(opinions on politics, issues, happiness etc, songs, movies, games and such). I have wanted to update my blog but been procrastinating. Coming August, this blog will be 3 years old - I need to be more organised and focused. Also, I want to have a separate blog writing about another passion of mine - Mathematics!!

So, thinking of it wont help - I need to take action and the moment is NOW. See if I could get it started on paper tonight.

English : My English is not good at all. I really need to improve on it - increase my vocab and grammar.

Busy whole day with classes.

Have a nice day. And to moms, happy Mom day. Without all the mommies, we all wont be here!

TEH

Friday, May 06, 2011

DOW down 140 points. So, that could drag down KLCI today? It is MAY ... May-Day, May-Day. It is sell in May, and go away?

Crude Oil : Dive below USD100. wow ... we are facing a double-dip?

USD : Weakening USD(vs MYR) could pose some problems to some sectors such as glove-makers and IT-related products. Some predicting USD to go to 2.80-2.90 by end of this year. As many do not expect QE3 to be announced, perhaps the weakening-rate will be lowered. Then again, gold(and silver) and crude oil could only go higher ... from here. Current correction in silver(I am checking SLV - it was down almost 12% yesterday) could be a good opportunity foe me who missed the boat. I was reading an article "Dont shoot the silver bull" and was thinking of silver.

Inflation: Rate up 25 basis points, could signal a higher inflation rate, with RON-97 up 20cents(again). Our money will become 'smaller' still ... wan-tan-mee costing RM5 now, it could go to RM5.50 or RM6(somehow the rate these prices going up are much faster than their production costs). Bread could go up again ... everything up!! Where is our 'zero inflation' motto?

Property : I have been 'surveying' with intention to buy a place to stay for ONE YEAR now. The apartment I am renting used to be around RM160k-RM190k (depending on size) but costing RM230k-RM260k now. Of coz we are in property boom, and many properties in 'hot area' up 30% or above. So, with our low wages, we could not afford even an apartment now. To buy a flat, I will be staying with many Africans, Nepalese and many more foreigners. Most of them working in factories nearby(Mamee is at the back of the apartment I am staying).

Stocks : While I have cleared off my YTLLand(at 1.88 and 1.83), I still have some UEMLand which in red. Holding to EAH at the moment as I made a bad mistake catching her when she dived.

PChem : During this correction, I will like to collect her. At support 7.05 now, looking at 6.75 level. RSI 40+. Wait.

9.55 am : KLCI down 10 points.

PChem : Touched 6.86, at 6.92 now. So, at 6.75 should be a good entry point.

Biolerm : Do feel lucky if one did not jump into the crazy buying in the morning and did not get out before lunch yesterday. It went from 0.82 to touch 0.99 level in short period of time before stablising at 0.84-0.86 level, only to close lower before closing. Today, it touches 0.70, at 0.73 level now. I learnt my lessons NOT to jump into a new IPO which shooting very high - I got the lesson from TAS(yes, an O&G counter) and cut losses then.

11.25 am : Quite free today as students going for their final exams next week. Will slowly collect my thoughts, trying to be focused and start writing down things that need my attention.

counter : 115, 000 at 12.35 pm.

Lunch time.

Credit-card: I went to EON to clear my credit-card balance. This is my 'new' credit-card, sort-of given to me when I took my car loan from EON bank last year. I did not use this card for any purposes so far - so, it is kinda stupid of me to agree to have my third card. You see, we have to pay RM50 to the gov, remember? But, since it is 'free', many of us wont mind having them!!

I have cleared my credit-cards last month - ALL the balances when I sold off my stocks(before Sarawak election) and took out some money to clear credit-card debts. It is like a approved loan-shark, actually. So, at the moment ... next week onwards as I am 'free', I will cancel off my platinum(Standard Chartered) card which charging me a high annual fees. I shall maintain my EON(classic - I insisted it to be classic tho they offer gold-card). Another credit-card I am having is by AEON as I do shop at Jusco(points collection and such).

That is my credit card situation - I have reduced cash(in my investment banks) but cleared my credit-card debts, at least. I hope to be discipline NOT to use my cards and also pay in full the amount used. My insurance, astro, TM and such bills still go direct(auto debit) thru my cards. Cant live this world without cards these days, dont we?

BoilerM : Now I remember her, she is QL's baby. Hmm ... I really need to get my thoughts organised!

4.20 pm : KLCI down 10 points.

KNM : Long time no see, RSI 29 now. No longer sexy.

TEH