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Tuesday, October 29, 2013

KLCI to retrace

I am seeing retracement for KLCI before it hit 1826(and beyond??).

GAB sold at RM17 was good, missed Carlsberg, tho. UMW bought at RM11.60 ... today hitting RM13(I asked the group to sell at Rm12.80). These are few no-brainer much of profitting from the technical rebound.



Property-stocks : Last week I sold many property counters, including Malton. It is bearish now ... UEMS ... SPSetia ... leading many property-counters to retrace sharply now. Well ... the bad news is out, the budget-day last Friday and it took market one-two days to digest the impact. Being a contrarian, I will be moving back into oversold property-counters.

It will be NOV soon ... raining season again ... CPO hitting RM2500 again, and we could see some bullishness in some plantation counters(which I mentioned a month ago). Do look at them to profits from the recovery. Avoid glove-counters as MYR appreciating vs USD.

I am glad to know that my Stock-Watch group is doing good. That is my accomplishment and great satisfaction there. Many committed to continue for 2014 ... and I feel motivated to work better on these ... their support is greatly appreciated. Many are my blog readers ... thanks again for giving me the chance to improve myself, to serve and benefiting many. Thanks.

Do join my stock-watch for NOV-DEC, open for registrations.

contact me at cpteh@yahoo.com

Night.

TEH



Sunday, October 27, 2013

Stock Watch : GAB



GAB : I was lucky to grab it at RM15.88 ... yes, the tip ... now, the fear is overdone ... being a contrarian, i do like to buy what many in fear about ... and the fear is regarding the sin-tax. BUY these kinda of counter if the RSI below 30.

The support at RM15.90 ... so, just go for it. Many in my stock-watch taken position at RM15.88 and RM15.90 too. Great confidence there.

Those who wish to join my stock-watch group, do contact me at cpteh@yahoo.com.

Cheers.

TEH

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

KLCI at new high

KLCI hitting new HIGH today ... 1814 level ... and we might be seeing our historical high at 1826(a day after election).

SKPetrol grabs the headlines ... and pulled the index. Petdag and Petgas have been steadily pushing up the index and PChem at new high too ... O&G to benefits from the budget, everyone is speculating on that. Some buying into Alam, Perisai, THHeavy, Coastal ... TAS flying to Rm1 soon and more ... the whole O&G sector is bullish ... tho crude-oil below USD100 now.

It is budget-rally, they said.

DOW closed 75points up last night while S&P hitting new high at 1759.33. Interesting? Bull-market is here to stay ... till 2018, when the 10-yr cycle is here?

We shall see if KLCI reaching 1826 tmr ... just another 10points plus ... with Malaysia-boleh spirit intact ... yes, we can.

Will update at night.

TEH

KLCI : Buy or Sell?


KLCI hit 1808 in the morning, but managed to close above 1800. As 1811 is a resistance, with Dow up about 40 points now ... it should be hitting 1811

So, should we be buying when RSI nearing to 70? It is at 67 at the moment. We buy when prices at low ... noises not around ... and since the shutdown drama is over, noises are back ... we SELL.

So, to me YTL is a SELL ... RSI at 71 ... at resistance 1.62, formed a doji today ... index-linked. SELL. I sold all my YTL-cr but some of them staying put to see YTL moving to RM1.68. I do not hesitate to sell for profits.

HapSeng is certainly a SELL ... what a strong good uptrend due to heavy share buyback. Shooting star with RSI 89? Phew ... wat a good profit riding on her(HapSeng-wa done much better, of coz).

TNLogis is given(to my stock watch) around RM4.30-RM4.40 ... well, closed at RM4.80 ... with RSI 75? Ok, if hitting 4.90+, SELL.

MPHBCap ... as our entry at 1.62-1.62 ... hitting my target 1.78, not nice candle-stick today, RSI at 80 SELL.

So ... my view is simple ... when chart is bullish, hitting to new high and we have 5-10% profits, SELL ... take profits ... go out to play and come back again when suddenly bad-news are in town.

By the way, CPO seems to be showing good BUY signals. Will write on that ...

night

TEH

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Trading : Risk and Noises

Encouraged by a reader who thanked me for my writing about the part I( click here) ... let me take a little of my time to share more about the beginners' steps ... into real trading.

Let us continue from what I hv written days back. Hmm ... I was talking about RISK that is involved when we are to trade in any financial markets. Even buying-selling properties or gold is considered as RISKY tradings!!

What I am sharing here is something we all could trade(online) ... that are equities, currencies, futures, ETFs and more. So, it is something which are LIQUID(can easily buy and sell, whenever we wanted to .. in click of mouses, wherever we are, if we are able to go online la ...).

Basically ... which one should we choose to trade?

Stock-markets vs Forex?

In my view, NO DOUBT it is suicidal to trade forex if one is newbie-novice ... and the risk is simply too enormous!! But,again ... MANY newbies have been mis-lead by many forex-trading courses, software promoters and profitting from the greediness of many newbies(they are new ma ... they thought trading is easy-leh ... and those promoters shown them even any Tom&Dick can trade at home and gain few hundreds percent ... logical or not?) ...

So, the promoters win ... they managed to advertise ... and give some free makan, freebies ... door gifts ... and asking us to go for their free talk in one of the hotels/centers. Great? Yeah ... one should go to such talks to understand what I meant. If you bring your greediness there, you will be ... err ... joining them, most probably.

Now, while most of us WANT profits, we overlooked the RISK in trading. That is a wrong mindset. Very mis-leading, indeed.

Then, how should we start?

Ok ... trade stock-markets!! Choose blue-chips such as PChem, for example. Learn some simple terms about trading ... example, trends ... and learn BASIC common sense about reading some financial-reports. FOCUS is the key word ... DO NOT mis-lead by many out there who are trying to 'help' you. Help yourself ... be persistent and consistent in your learning, and be FOCUS.

Get the REALITY to seep in ...

Get the fundamental RIGHT ... the mindset. It is the most important asset we are having. Be realistic ... be firm and check what is your motivation to do well ... in trading. Accept it that the learning is grueling and expect to get our fingers burnt. Accept the up-down of emotions ... the feeling of defeats ... but never give-up. Pick yourself up ... do better the next time. You will somehow learn well, if you are sensible and rationale. Many in markets DO NOT have these qualities ... so, hang-on there ... you will do very well.

Buy ... see how you feel. Buy at a level, think of WHY you are buying at the level. SELL if of for profits ... or even a loss .. feel it. Are you smiling due to the profits and think you are they 'best' or are you feeling down due to the loss? ASK ... why?

Always ASK questions ... seek some answers ... double-check the answers, have second opinions. I am being a mentor to many newbies in my group, and I derived the satisfactions from seeing them improve tremendously, while I am also indirectly learning many things from them too ... so, question ... no question is considered as 'silly'. If you dont know the term 'contra' or 'margin call' ... you just need to hang in markets for some time ... getting in a group(those who are serious to learn... not those noisy forums) ...

Remember ... once you are in market, you are exposed to RISK. Also, you are exposed to majority losers out there ... many will make noises ... and it is drowning. If you seek attentions, you will get un-necessary attentions, in which of little help in your improvements. In fact, others will confuse you further. Get real, as I said. It is grueling ... accept it, move on and be better, not bitter.

Learning to move away from the crowds ... and herd is a very important criteria to be good in trading-investing. To learn that, we need to be different ... and discipline. In investing, we called in 'contrarian'. Be a contrarian ...just means, SELL when many coming into buy ... and BUY when not many interested to grab. Those very active 'goreng' counters are strongly NOT advisible. Let others goreng ... we need to keep our focus well in order NOT to be in the crowd. Short-list few good counters and place it is your stock-list. Nothing else ... no need to check on others, just purely focus in those few ... while adding in more good fundamental counters into our watch-list. When our knowledge and experiences grow, we will ... learn more, and I am sure those with discipline to learn well, will do well. Remember, only 20% of those in markets learnt well ... about trading markets, and they took years ...

Nothing come easy ... if anyone telling you it is easy, stare at them ... ask them to be honest.

Welcoming Westport into KLSE ... the most talked abot IPO as it is linked to Li Ka-Shing.

Time to rest ... and will write again, if I could find some motivation(and time).

TEH

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Market talks




I will be attending more market-talks this week onwards as I will be 'free' till DEC. Will also attend chart-nexus member meetings next week. 

You need 3 things to happen all at the same time, in order to have a financial crisis. Last week I mentioned to you what one of these elements are: margin debt going sky high. But there are 2 more... 

In tonight's LIVE Webinar I will show you why I am expecting all 3 elements to come together in 2014 and how you can profit from the financial crisis that will occur:

Date: Wednesday 16th October

Time: 7:00 PM UK Time (2:00 PM Eastern) --- around 4am Malaysian Time

In this live training webinar you will learn:

The 3 elements of a financial crisis
How to spot the crash before everyone else
A major mistake in the way people look at the markets
Ways to profit from the crisis
The top 5 gold stocks I am waiting to buy.

 Talk soon,

Alessio

The above is a webinar from US ... by Alessio. He made his name by being controversially 'exposed' how Goldman Sach controlled the financial world(FED too).

Gold-future : This Saturday, I will be free for a gold-future seminar. It will be interesting to learn and to know how to trade gold. We could go long-short on the directions of Gold.

TEH

Sunday, October 13, 2013

The Edge #984 : Highlights

It is Sunday night ... time to stay in my home-office, to read some news related to markets. As I am rather 'free', let me share about The Edge(it cost RM5, weekly magz). I dislike reading it thru online, so I m still glad to have the hard-copy.

Newbies-novices are advised to buy The Edge or the new addition, Focus(by HCK's group). Recently, I have shifted to Focus. Does'nt matter much, both are almost the same. Just BUY one ... for reading and learning purposes. Do not be those losers who will flip thru the who magz in Popular or MPH. I do see many of such cheap-uncles ... who are not willing to spend a RM5 for reading pleasure, and want it free. Such attitudes and characters won't do well in markets. Pay for what worth it ...

Headlines : Front page "The Malaysian Connection", still a hot topic about how the three companies' stock-price tanked. Also, "K&N Kenanga eyeing Indonesia broker" ... thought they are with ECM now? The hot-topic is about those stand-alone broker houses and TA(Tony-Alicia) is becoming the main hot-speculated news ... well, markets need NEWS to speculate ... afterall, OSK-RHB and Affin-Hwang having that marriage in place, right? Who will marry TA? Hmm ...

"Kulim sees opportunity in O&G with Indonesia re-entry". Hmm ... is that a good news for Kulim?

Oriental mulling expansion amidst CPO downturn ... turn to page20 ... read a little about a counter called "Orient"  ... a good FA counter that I do like and traded before. Automotive and related products 45.58%, Property developments and others 15.87%, Plantation 15.1%, Plastic products 11.19%, Hotel and Resorts 7.91% and Financial-Investment 4.36%. It is interesting to know that 43% of the group's net profit derived from plantation division!! They have cash-pile of RM2bil.

A full four-pages of advertisement by I&P Group ... wonder if it will be injected in SPSetia? That was written some time ago?

Page 11 : Frankly Speaking ... talking about the dismissal of two of directors of Benalec. It is the best to avoid Benalec for the time being as such uncertainties might be seeing some sell-down.

XiDeLang ... rights-issue? Cash call for what?? They have such huge cash-pile(most of those China-listed stocks are!!) ... might as well take it private la ... sigh ... these China-counters are big NO-NO to me ... recently written about CSL again ... are these counters under-valued? Heck ... I won't bother to care ... we could not use logic and fundamentals to analyse such counters, but due they are penny-cheap, many goreng-punters like such counters. I do remember I traded MSports and XinQuan before ...  and I will NOT touch any of them anymore.

Caely ... recently shooting so high up ... with the headline "Caely to focus on property sector" ... it is like WOW ... anything related to property the counters will be favoured?? The recent news I read was Salcon. How about Jaks ... they are venturing into property too, right? Another sector investors like is O&G ... and more companies want to be part to the big pie. Hmm ...

PetOne ... ouch ... one lousy counter, political linked and abandoned. So, former Kencana director to take over PetOne?

Uchitech keeps dividend policy of at least 70% of its profits after tax ... a good dividend counter to hold. Good uptrend too.

Another headline (page 28) : "Carlsberg more vulnerable to downtrading than GAB" ... errr ... have not read the page(I am interested with both) ... but guess it is the fear of higher tax and upcoming budget announcement. Avoid.

Lead Story : Unexpected boost for Asean markets ... that is a good news for equity-markets!!

Share buybacks : HapSeng, YTLPower, Parkson continue to buy back their shares ... Insas and MyEg, IGB and P&O too.

Hunza-porperty being highlighted in the warrant page ... if one knows how to trade warrants, it is a good instruments to trade ...

This is a continuation of what I have written yesterday ... and hope I m still motivated to share more. Just as everyone else, I started a total newbie ... and now an advanced-novice, I still have lots to learn from many 'masters' ... and continue to do what I deemed as right.

Hope it will guide a little as I m planning to write more about the 'Learning Corner' in the www.tratles.net

Have a nice week ahead.

TEH

Saturday, October 12, 2013

How to start trading - Part I

It is Saturday ... phew ... a rare Saturday that I do not have anything on(or I shall say, I want to rest ... pushing everything aside) ... and have TIME by myself, planning and thinking of re-creating my work-space, at home!!

I have been asked many of times by newbies/novices ... how do we actually start to trade in stock-markets or any other financial markets?

Understanding RISK is the most important pointer I could say.

Example : We heard of those trading in forex or highly leveraged financial instruments(futures, options, warrants etc etc) which carried VERY HIGH risk to the newbies. Hey, if we are totally new to trading, we do to drive fast-cars, right? So, we shall choose LOWER RISK instruments to trade, right? Well ... sounds logical BUT unfortunately, so many newbies started in wrong-footing, enticed by those so-called GET-RICH-QUICK programs which shown us how many HUNDREDS percent they gained ... using their systems.

THINK ... do use BRAIN. Is that really THAT simple?

Forex is one very risky trading ... yet, being well-promoted by many Sporeans forex-trading schools ... trying to LURE many greedy get-rich-quick Malaysians ... into their sure-win trading system. I have attended 3-4 such seminars ... each time, I came out with a cynical smile. Hmm ... still, there are some signed up? RM8k ? RM12k? wow ... Malaysians are THAT greedy?

I do believe it is their marketing strtegies too ... that they have their 'own' people pretending to register for the courses ... making it looks like REAL, and some un-aware greedy ones might be tempted to spend their RM8k for the sure win systems ... after all, many are registering too ... it can't be so wrong, right? Some guaranteed to train you till you 'succeeded'. Hmm ... too good to be true? Then, it is not true?

Anyway ... BASIC common-sense is needed to stay sane in markets.

So, we should start with the simplest possible : KLSE's blue chips. Trade those blue chips with good fundamentals. You can't get too wrong. Try out some of your readings/findings ... and personalised our own systems, to suit our risk appetite, our capitals ... our knowledge/experiences ...

What is blue chip? Err ... well, those 30 index-linked counters. If you do not know about them, ask around ... counters like GenM, Genting, UEMS, IHH ... etc etc ... UMW which I recently traded. Not all the 30-KLCI-linked counters are good fundamentally, but it is suffice to say ... they are OK. You won't lose our money buying into Astro or FGV, eventho I dislike both. Haha ... MISC ... another counter where u see her in the list, then you don't. MAS used to be in the 30-KLCI counters ... I still prefer the 100-counters to the new 30-counters where they could easier to manipulate the index(KLCI). Of coz we all knew about that ... but for newbies, it is too much to grasp. Take your TIME ...

Learn to know these top 30-counters ... BUY the lousy 'The Star' paper on Mondays to get a list of top-100 counters, with their market cap(no of share issues x stock price) in order. Learn to know WHICH ONE is good ... and which is a no-no to touch. Start from here. Learn FA = fundamental analysis. NOTHING ELSE at newbie level. NEVER bother to ask if Silver is a good bird or XOX could give us the XO ... or Tiger will be giving us a show? It is waste of such precious time even talking about such ... how are we going to know if Smartag is smart enough to invest into? Ask something like ... YTL ... will they becoming a dividend counters and what is the indication of YTLPower heavy share-buyback for? Learn about what YTL-group is all about ... start from here!!

Learn to ask GOOD questions ... be realistic. Many in markets will be reluctant to share their knowledge(for free) and listen to LESS people. Trying to avoid noise forums is a logical move for newbies. You will be emotionally 'trapped' by many so-called sifus there ... and get confused.

Learn to do your own research. Do not buy anything if you do not know what is it about. And even if you knew about the counters ... such as Astro or so, do not jump into to buy into them. LEARN to check their fundamentals. There are schools of fundamental analysis, but honestly ... FA itself is NOT GOOD enough. At least we won't be trap silly inside Sersol or stupid Harvest ... or KBunai which is karam-ing. Heck, we still wonder if the price of gold-silver to recover further ... will that helps Silver to get out of PN17?

What is PN17? Don't know about it? Search www.bursamalaysia.com ... ask around ... and it just means DO NOT TOUCH such counters. Get me? First of all, you are a newbie-novice ... PN17 basically means NOT GOOD. So, not for newbies.

PN = Practice Note. Some in GN3. Heck, what is that now? Never mind ... I can't be bother abut those counters, anyway. How about Mesdaq-coounters ... known as ACE-market now? Hmm .. not all are bad, but these small-cap counters are at best to be avoided by newbies. Just listen la ... avoid.


http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/list-of-companies/ace-market/

At the moment, many penny-stocks in ACE are in play ... Inari ran so high up, it doesn't make sense. One may buy The Star(Saturday) for the weekly reports on stocks, including ACE-counters.

Have you heard of people said "Do not go into stock-markets, you will lose all you money?". Silly ... you do not lose all your money ... unless the company you bought(yes, buying shares in markets is buying a piece of their biz) going bankrupt or delisted. Well .. stick to blue-chips, you will NOT lose all your money. That is pure-fear without senses.

But recently, have you read about the three listed companies in SGX(Singapore Stock Exchange) which tanked? MANY investors lost or losing lots of money ... that is ouch. Know why blue-chips still the best for newbies?

Once you have checked on BURSA for the counters ... do download some charts. Do not bother to pay another few thousands RM4-6k for those trading courses, claiming that they will teach you all the sure-win technical-charting. You may pay me 10-20% of that amount, I wont mind teaching you my ah-pek common sense ways of checking charts. It is all about FUNDAMENTALS ... not those charts la. Get it?

Next good resource to learn is BOOKS : Get some good local written books. Those stock-market books titles could be VERY misleading ... such as How to be millionaire or gain huge money from stock-markets(haha ... marketing gimmicks la) ... but they are good references for newbies-novices. I am no promoter to any publishers or authors. Recently, I saw my 'interview' being placed in Alan Tan's latest book ... "How to make money in market". I went through some of the contents, it is good enough book for newbies-novices. I do like Pauline's books too ... Adam's "Winning the game of stocks" is a very good book, tho I did not read much in details(most of things mentioned inside are just revisions for me ... but those are valuable reminders!!)

MINDSET books are equally important. Start from here ... build good fundamental in our brain. Have a strong persistent, determination, dedication ... to our learn. NEVER give-up attitudes are needed, even if we are not performing after some time. Giving up is one of the worst steps anyone could take ... but trading is NOT for most of people. So, if one is not a hard-working person, with wrong mindset ... do QUIT in earlier stage. That could reduce the pain ... of learning ... of losing ...

Summary

1. Get to know the fundamentals of companies : Check their websites, learn to read the annual-reports, quarter-reports, businesses ... and draw a strong clear line about counters we should NOT touch(example losing money counters or highly geared companies)

2. Download some charting softwares(need NOT to subscribe). It is free.

3. Listen to those logical and helpful, experienced investors-traders. Do not listen to forums or join too many of those facebook's forum groups. Noises is NOT what we want if we need to focus, to learn.

4. Buy some good trading-investing books. Jot down what you have learnt, ASK those who willing to answer your questions ... search for the more thru google.com ... investopedia.com and more.

5. Join my group(haha) ... and learn more about trading-investing. Learn by asking questions, being with those who are serious in their learning to trade well and being supportive.

Will write about ... part II, if I have the time.

Have a nice weekend

TEH (cpteh@yahoo.com)


Thursday, October 10, 2013

Stock Watch : UOADev




UOADev : Nice reversing chart shown ... I am inside UOADev ... a very good property-stock. Do consider. Resistance at Rm2.52(sell)

Do visit www.tratles.net for some posts.

Have a good week ahead.

TEH

Wednesday, October 09, 2013

PASSION : Harith ... the stand-up comedian





Passion ... without it, nothing will last. By following your dream ... further realising it with sincerely passionate about what you are doing, ... do your butt out, you will be good in anything you aim to do ... and enjoying doing it.

Great man.

TEH

Monday, October 07, 2013

SERSOL : Down the drain


SERSOL : What is the hot-stock to discuss ... none other than ... SERSOL. Err ... dont really know the biz(if any), just know that they allowed goreng-ing in KLSE, otherwise it will be 'boring'. I wrote about Sersol at www.tratles.net yesterday ... well, anticipating more selling but I do not expect it to close at 0.395 ... though 0.42 will be severe enough .... ouch, for many punters(newbies getting burnt is OK ... learnt the lesson and promise NOT to punt or listen to noises ... but old-punters getting burnt into this must be ... err ... desperately greedy). INI KALI-la ... yelled someone who bought into her. ouch.

KLCI did rebound ... but not much of strength to sustain and we are seeing jittery all over global markets as US's shutdown hitting into days now ... the DOW future pointing to 100 plus points lower, which should do well for my short-positioning. We shall see how long KLCI could maintain at 1770 levels ....before giving way.

UMW : Glad that it closed in green ... 11.88 now. I hv written in my tratles.net that I bought into her last week. By the way, they are only giving 1000units for the O&G. Hmm ... will sell her off for profits. Well, I will not apply its IPO but I do think it is worth a try.

GHLSys : Went crazy today ... as we in stock-watch bought around 0.45, selling at 0.52 this morning was ... err ... supposed to be good. We bought last week ... then suddenly, it was suspended(wonder why?) ... it closed at 60cents. ouch.



HuaYang : Going to give bonus again ... mid-month ex-bonus, 1 for 3. BUY.

ok ... time to rest.

TEH




Sunday, October 06, 2013

Inari : Update



This is Inari ... which I posted when it broke-out ... and profitted twice. But, I opted out far more earlier as I do know it is being pushed up by some invisible hands, only to let it to crash down ... and the game might be over with them denying the 20% stake. Do read ... these are news-driven, speculated and more ... if it has ANY fundamentals to talk about, certainly it ran far over its 'fair' value. 

So, to me ... Friday is a MUST to sell when indicators pointing down. I have asked my group to exit ALL ... but don't know if anyone still inside the thick of the unclear cloud ... once it is cleared, we shall see some free-style diving.

It is Sunday ... but I am a little lazy to write more ... do go to www.tratles.net instead.

have a nice week ahead.

TEH

Thursday, October 03, 2013

Gold futures trading




http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/derivatives/products/commodity-derivatives/gold-futures-fgld

I will be looking into it in details and will form a learning group for my tratles/stock-watch members who wish to learn too.

as currently i am learning to trade FKLI, it will be interesting to learn FGLD ...

hope someone knowledgeable will share some ideas in trading Gold-future.

TEH